Scientists have calculated the solar generation potential of every Brazilian state. The study show that the nation has the potential to install 337.83 GW of solar. The state of Bahia leads with 43.97 GW, followed by Minas Gerais with 41.84 GW and Mato Grosso with 39.73 GW.

(A) Annual potential solar generation, (B) installable capacity

Image: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, scientific data, Creative Commons License CC BY 4.0

Scientists from Brazil, Colombia, and Germany have created a database of PV generation potential in every state in Brazil, using 2019 as the reference year for solar irradiation. The researchers aim to use existing energy data in Brazil – including the national electricity regulator's Siga database and data from the Energy Research Office (EPE) – and make it more easily accessible to the international community.

“By providing the first publicly available, spatially explicit, harmonized, English-language version of Brazil's energy data, we enable researchers to replicate the Brazilian energy system and/or improve integration into global energy models, starting from a common base,” the scientists said.

To calculate the solar generation potential of each state, the team used the Energy Data Analysis Tool (EnDAT), which until now was only available internally at the German Aerospace Center.

The model uses two maps to calculate the potential for solar generation – one that identifies exclusion areas, and another that serves as a suitability criterion for determining the available area. The maximum density of installations is calculated by taking into account the greatest shading effect on modules with an optimized angle for the winter solstice. The potential was determined for solar installations on rooftops, facades, other open urban areas, and areas suitable for large-scale ground-mounted installations.

In total, Brazil has the potential to install 337.83 GW of solar, according to the study. The results for all of Brazil’s 27 states are as follows:

1. Bahia (BA): 43.97 GW
2. Minas Gerais (MG): 41.84 GW
3. Mato Grosso (MT): 39.73 GW
4. Goiás (GO): 24.40 GW
5. Pará (PA): 21.28 GW
6. Mato Grosso do Sul (MS): 19.62 GW
7. Piauí (PI): 17.05 GW
8. Maranhão (MA): 16.46 GW
9. Tocantins (TO): 14.76 GW
10. Rio Grande do Sul (RS): 13.28 GW
11. São Paulo (SP): 12.42 GW
12. Ceará (CE): 11.94 GW
13. Pernambuco (PE): 9.37 GW
14. Rondônia (RO): 8.66 GW
15. Paraná (PR): 8.28 GW
16. Roraima (RR): 6.72 GW
17. Paraíba (PB): 5.63 GW
18. Rio Grande do Norte (RN): 4.44 GW
19. Espírito Santo (ES): 3.08 GW
20. Santa Catarina (SC): 2.93 GW
21. Amazonas (AM): 2.91 GW
22. Alagoas (AL): 2.54 GW
23. Rio de Janeiro (RJ): 2.06 GW
24. Sergipe (SE): 1.94 GW
25. Acre (AC): 1.56 GW
26. Amapá (AP): 0.99 GW
27. Brazil’s capital city Brasília (DF): 0.27 MW

The researchers described their model in “Harmonized and Open Energy Dataset for Modeling a Highly Renewable Brazilian Power System” which was recently published in Scientific Data. The dataset on potential installed capacity, as well as other information, can be accessed here.